Introduction

Description of the project and the app

The main objective of the modeling tool is to better capture the link between the seasonal activity of Leafminer species and the seasonal activity of their Parasitoids so that growers and advisers can better understand and manage the population dynamics of the pest and its parasitoids. These processes vary across region and season so an approach that considers this spatial variation in conditions is necessary to provide insights that are timely and regionally relevant to affected plant industries.

Description of the application

This diagram consists of three steps:

  1. Mapping collected data within an web-app (using R shiny web-app)
  2. Prediction of leafminers and parasitoid populations using growth rate model and dispersal model
  3. Connecting prediction with collected data on the web-app.

Description of the modelling approach

Description of the model

The model diagram provides an overview of the SDM (Species Distribution Model) given in the project diagram. Colored rectangles are variables and grey boxes are rules. Variables and rules of the model are described hereafter.

Observation data

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Since many points have same coordinates, jitter allows to click on single one.

                    

                      
                      
                    

                    

                  

                

              

            

            

              

                

                  

                    

                      

                        
                      

                    

                    

                  

                

              

            

          

          

            

              

                

                  

                    
Description of the growth rate model

                  

                  

                    
Growth Rate and Stress Mortality

                    
Temperature response parameter using Schoolfield et al. 
                  (1981) model given by the following equation:

                    
                    
$$\dfrac{
                  p_{T} \times \frac{x}{T_{ref}} \times 
                  \exp \left(  \frac{H_A}{R} \times 
                  \left(  \frac{1}{T_{ref}} - \frac{1}{x} \right)  \right) 
                }{ 1 + \exp \left(  
                  \frac{H_L}{R} \times \left(  \frac{1}{T_{0.5L}} - \frac{1}{x} \right) 
                  \right) + \exp \left(  
                   \frac{H_H}{R} \times \left(  \frac{1}{T_{0.5H}} - \frac{1}{x} \right) 
                  \right)
                }$$

                  

                

              

            

            

              

                

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                  

                

              

            

            

              

                

                  

                    
Result of simulation

                  

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                    

                  

                

              

              

                

                  

                    

                      
                      

                        
                        
                      

                    

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                

              

            

          

          

            

              

                

                  

                    
Matching observation and simulation

                  

                  

                    
Map correspondance between observation and simulation.

                  

                

              

              

                

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                    

                  

                

              

              

                

                  

                    

                      
Observation

                    

                    

                      

                        
                        

                          
                          
                        

                      

                      

                        
                        

                          
                          
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Model